How to Handicap Preseason Games Without Getting Burned

Why Preseason Is Different From Regular Season

Preseason games are extended practice sessions. Coaches rotate players systematically. Starters play approximately one half of the game. Backups play the second half. Third-string players play garbage time.

Coaches are testing schemes, not winning games. A coach running a screen pass in preseason fourth quarter is learning something about the scheme. A coach running the same screen in regular season overtime is executing. The intent is completely different.

Regular season games are competition. The same players play together the entire game. The schemes are finalized through training camp. The outcomes matter for playoff seeding.

The correlation between preseason performance and regular season performance is statistically weak. A team winning 4-0 in preseason often loses their regular season opener. A team going 0-4 has sometimes produced Super Bowl champions.

The Data Problem

Four preseason games occur in August before the season starts. Each team plays two home games, two away games. The sample is small. Statistical significance is nearly impossible to achieve with four games.

Variance is enormous. One significant injury in preseason week 3 can alter a team's regular season drastically. You cannot predict this injury from week 1 and week 2 data.

Starters are not fully healthy. They are getting into game condition after months of lighter training. This affects performance but not in a way that transfers to regular season.

When Preseason Might Have Signal

Defense is somewhat more predictable than offense. A poor preseason defense, if starting players are on the field, often remains poor. A strong preseason defense against mostly backup offenses is less clear.

Offense is less predictable. A great preseason offense might be facing a backup defense. A poor preseason offense might be missing a key player for conditioning purposes only.

Specific lineup information offers signal. If a team's starting line five is healthy and playing together in preseason, the execution level means something. If starters are mostly on the sideline for preseason 1 and 2, the games are essentially meaningless.

Professional Handicapping Approach

Professional bettors focus on specific, identifiable differences between preseason and regular season, not on predictive models. These differences include:

• Injury status changes (starter who was resting returns)
• Coordinator or offensive scheme changes
• Backup player performance that might affect depth chart
• Specific personnel experiments

If you identify a specific reason why a team's preseason performance should transfer, you might have edge. If you are betting blind, you are betting on randomness.

The Honest Assessment

Most professional bettors avoid preseason betting entirely. The ROI is low relative to regular season. The information advantage is small. The vig (the 4.5 percent vig on typical -110 odds) is difficult to overcome when the underlying edge is uncertain.

Casual bettors enjoy preseason because gambling is entertainment, and having action on games during a slow August is enjoyable even if the expected value is neutral or negative.

If you are betting preseason for financial edge, you should probably focus on regular season where information advantages are clearer. If you are betting preseason for entertainment, know that you are likely paying for that entertainment through negative EV.